As Japan’s population continues to decline, the role of foreign workers in sustaining its workforce and economy has become increasingly important. However, public debates about immigration often focus on restrictions rather than long-term solutions.
In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Kiyoko Saito, a senior researcher at the JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, stressed that foreign workers are essential if Japan wants to maintain a stable society. Her research centers on international labor migration and worker mobility.
Labor Shortages Ahead
According to projections from her institute, Japan will need about 4.19 million foreign workers by 2030 and 6.88 million by 2040 to meet the government’s medium-growth economic targets. Without them, Japan could face shortages of 770,000 workers in 2030 and nearly 1 million workers in 2040.
Saito notes that the exact numbers depend on many factors, such as automation, economic growth, and policies in both Japan and sending countries. Still, she argues that foreign workers will remain indispensable.
Rethinking Japan’s Approach
Saito believes Japan must decide what kind of society it wants to build. Should the country tolerate fewer services and greater inconvenience, or should it actively welcome foreign workers to maintain current standards of living?
Until now, foreign workers have often been seen as temporary trainees expected to return home after a few years. Saito suggests it may be time to view them instead as long-term contributors who can settle, raise families, and support Japan’s communities for generations.
Addressing Misconceptions
Concerns about foreigners burdening Japan’s welfare system often circulate, but Saito points out these impressions are misleading. She emphasizes the need for nuanced discussions that consider workers’ skills, visa types, and contributions, rather than “all or nothing” assumptions.
Toward Sustainable Models
She highlights that different industries may require different approaches. For example, Australia uses a hybrid model that combines short-term working holiday employees with long-term migrant workers. Japan, too, could benefit from flexible systems that match skills with industries, while ensuring rights and responsibilities are clearly defined.
Workers’ Expectations Matter
Another challenge lies in aligning expectations. Many workers arrive in Japan with high hopes, sometimes based on social media or word-of-mouth, only to find the reality lonelier and more difficult. Misunderstandings about programs like the Technical Intern Training Program and the Specified Skilled Worker Visa also create frustration.
Saito stresses the need for better access to accurate information — both in Japan and in sending countries — so that workers make informed choices and avoid disappointment.
Building Trust for the Future
Japan’s image abroad remains strong, often seen as a “dream destination” thanks to its culture, safety, and hospitality. However, to maintain this reputation and become a truly welcoming society, Saito argues that Japan must create systems that support workers not only in the workplace but also in their lives, families, and futures.
Her conclusion is clear: if Japan wants to remain stable and competitive, foreign workers must be seen not as temporary solutions but as partners in building the nation’s future.
